Democrats Hold 5-Point Midterm Edge as Trump’s Approval Hits New Low

A new NBC News poll gives Democrats a 5-point lead over Republicans in the fight for Congress ahead of the 2026 midterms, according to results released June 14.

Pollsters surveyed registered voters nationwide from May 29 to June 7, and the poll puts Trump at 42% approval, the lowest mark of his second term.

With Republicans defending control of the House, the numbers matter because Democrats need a net gain of just three seats to take the chamber.

The poll found that 49% of registered voters prefer Democrats to control Congress, while 44% prefer Republicans. Independents leaned toward Democrats by 12 points, 46% to 34%. The party also drew majorities from Black voters, Latino voters, voters under 50, and college graduates.

More Perfect, a nonpartisan nonprofit, sponsored the poll. Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies and Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates conducted it among 2,400 registered voters, with a margin of error of 2 percentage points.

McInturff, a Republican pollster, did not frame the results as a wipeout for his party. "These are rocky numbers for Republicans, but they are not catastrophic," he told NBC News. He noted that Democrats held larger advantages in "blue wave" years like 2018.

NBC News chief data analyst Steve Kornacki made a similar point about GOP strategy during his June 14 polling breakdown on Meet the Press. "So Republicans hoping to contain the damage at least looking at a number like that," Kornacki said.

The result also does not mark a sudden break from earlier NBC polling. In March, half of the respondents wanted Democrats to win back control of Congress, while 44% wanted Republicans to keep their majorities, and 6% remained unsure.

The House math keeps the stakes high. Democrats only need to net three seats to win control, so even a modest national advantage could matter if it holds into the fall.

Trump's approval rating adds pressure for Republicans. Brookings noted in April that the Republican-controlled House and Senate had done little to separate themselves from the president, whose approval sat around 40% as disapproval rose from 44% to 57%.

Other polling has pointed in the same direction. A Fox News survey in April found economic pessimism giving Democrats an edge six months out from Election Day. A Center Square Voters Voice Poll conducted June 1 to 4 found 47% of registered voters would choose a Democratic candidate, compared with 41% for a Republican, a shift from March, when the parties nearly tied at 44% to 43%.

Noble also warned that economic anxiety could worsen the GOP's position. "Republicans have a problem on their hands. If these economic pain points continue or get worse, the worse it's going to be for them for the midterms," he told The Center Square.

Still, the poll captures a moment, not a final result. At this same point in the 2022 cycle, the parties stood tied, and leads can shift before Election Day.

Reports in late May also indicated Republicans could gain a structural edge through redistricting. The Cook Political Report projects the likeliest scenario as Republicans netting around half a dozen House seats due to redistricting alone, though the overall outcome will depend on how ongoing litigation plays out.

For now, Democrats hold the clearer national advantage. Republicans, however, can point to past midterm shifts, district-level math, and McInturff's warning that the numbers look bad but not fatal.