While Trump Targets Allies With Tariffs, China Is Quietly Winning The Global Trade Game
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As U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration scrambles to secure trade victories ahead of his July deadline, a new survey has exposed a deeper problem: a global trust deficit in Donald Trump himself.
Trump’s 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs is set to expire on July 8, 2025.
According to a recent Politico-Public First poll, while the majority of Americans and Britons support the idea of a bilateral trade deal, fewer than one-third of British respondents and only 44% of Americans believe Trump will stick to the agreement.
Highlights
- A Politico-Public First poll shows less than a third of Brits and only 44% of Americans trust Trump to honor trade deals.
- Nearly half of Brits see China as a more reliable trade partner than the U.S., especially younger people under 34 years old.
- China is expanding trade ties in Asia, Europe, and Canada, leveraging Trump’s unpredictable tariff policies to gain global influence.
A survey shows doubt among Brits and Americans that Trump will honor trade deal promises
Image credits: The White House/Flickr
The poll, conducted in late April, reveals what many allies fear: under Trump’s leadership, the U.S. has become an unpredictable partner.
The increasing skepticism isn’t just a diplomatic issue. It’s a strategic opportunity for China—a powerful player that has moved in quickly to reassure and recruit America’s allies into its growing economic sphere.
The U.S.-U.K. agreement, announced on May 8, lowers tariffs on British-made cars, aircraft components, steel, and aluminum, while opening British markets to U.S. agricultural products, ethanol, and machinery.
Yet, only one in five people in the U.K. believe that the U.S. is the most important country to have trade relations with.
Image credits: Giovanna Coi/Politico
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer welcomed the agreement at a joint White House press conference with Trump. But the country’s trust in it is scarce.
Nearly half of Brits said they view China as a more reliable trading partner than the U.S., with people under the age of 34 being more skeptical of Trump’s consistency, and finding China to be more stable.
That’s a significant shift for a country that could be seen as one of America’s closest allies.
Image credits: Simon Dawson/Flickr
“China is looking a lot better these days,” Scott Lincicome, VP of general economics at the Cato Institute, told Politico. “They’re not lashing out at their closest allies with tariffs.”
China has launched a charm offensive across Asia and Europe, aiming to present itself as a more reliable trading partner, taking advantage of the increasing unease over Trump’s trade policies.
Just days after Trump announced his sweeping tariff package in early April, President Xi Jinping toured several Asian countries to strengthen economic ties, while Beijing also signaled interest in deepening trade cooperation with the European Union.
In recent policy reversal talks between China and the U.S., the Trump administration rolled back some of its own tariff hikes. The ‘de minimis’ rate on low-value parcels from China, which had been pushed up to 120%, was scaled back to 54%.
This change followed a May 12 agreement between U.S. and Chinese officials to lower tariffs on both sides, with the U.S. lowering tariffs to 30% and China lowering tariffs to 10%.
The agreement, which extended the same tariff relief that the U.S. granted to other countries, would last for an initial period of 90 days in an attempt to pause the tit-for-tat escalation.
America’s allies view China as a more stable and reliable trading partner
Image credits: Shealah Craighead/Flickr
Still, Chinese exports face an average tariff of 40% because of sectoral tariffs, effectively keeping the tariffs higher than before Trump’s second-term trade war began.
Trump has now completely retreated from the hardline stance on tariffs laid out on “Liberation Day,” April 2.
But it holds consequences for the U.S.
The dollar has lost its strength against the euro and yen, meaning American consumers now face higher costs for imported goods, and their spending power has declined.
Suzanne Clarke, CEO and president of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, previously said that the uncertainty created by the tariff situation would cause “many small businesses to suffer irreparable harm” in the coming months.
A study by the Yale Budget Lab found that tariff-related import costs could increase household expenses by $2,300 annually.
Meanwhile, Chinese exports to Southeast Asia have surged. Beijing’s long-time strategy seems to be to route goods through regional partners—where they undergo minor processing—for China to later re-export those items globally, including to the U.S., without facing the same country-specific tariffs.
China’s President Xi Jinping is using Trump’s global tariffs as an opportunity to create new business ties
Image credits: Florence Lo-Pool/Getty Images
While U.S. officials have tried to frame the situation as a successful step toward “strategic decoupling,” the reality seems to be that China has expanded its options and gained leverage.
However, Canada and the EU haven’t fared well.
Despite the trade deal that exists between the U.S., Canada and Mexico, Trump has levied sweeping tariffs on America’s long-term allies.
Canada was hit with harsh duties on aluminum and steel earlier this spring.
“We don’t need their Cars, we don’t need their Energy, we don’t need their Lumber, we don’t need ANYTHING they have, other than their friendship,” Trump said in the social media post.
Image credits: TrumpDailyPosts
The U.S. and Canada have the biggest bilateral trade relationship in the world. It accounts for $2.5 billion of trade per day.
As the New York Times highlights, the U.S. is indeed dependent on Canada for several things. In 2023, it imported about 1.24 million vehicles from Canada, received 60% of its crude oil from there in 2022, and bought $28 billion worth of lumber in 2021.
Canada’s newly elected Prime Minister Mark Carney campaigned largely on an anti-Trump platform amid constant jabs from the American president.
“The crisis in the United States doesn’t stop at their borders,” he said in a video. “But this is Canada and we decide what happens here. Let’s choose to be united and strong.”
Under his leadership, Canada is undertaking an “elbows up” approach towards the U.S., a hockey term to protect yourself or fight back.
Canada has levied reciprocal tax on the U.S., along with more long-term changes, such as Canadians boycotting American-made products, even going as far as to change the name of Americano coffee to “Canadiano.”
Travel from Canada to the U.S. has also shrunk drastically, with the number of flights scheduled to the U.S. from Canada down by 21%, a New York Times analysis shows.
Canada’s new Prime Minister Mark Carney campaigned largely on an anti-Trump platform
Image credits: Gabriel B Kotico/Flickr
Canada may now also reconsider expanding bilateral links with Beijing instead. Beijing’s ambassador to Canada has made his intentions clear and told Ottawa that China is interested in stepping up trade with the country.
“Unilateralism and trade protectionism have brought more instabilities and uncertainties to the world economic recovery,” Wang Di, China’s ambassador to Canada, said in March.
“The international community should stand up together against this kind of behavior.”
In a conversation with The Atlantic, Canadian ambassador to the U.S. Kirsten Hillman said Canadians are angry and unsettled by Trump’s behavior with the tariffs.
The EU is also reconsidering its strategic alignment. Trump’s withdrawal from multilateral agreements has pushed Europe closer to Beijing, too. Xi said China was ready to work with the EU, news agency Xinhua reported.
Image credits: Dati Bendo/The European Commission
It also confirmed that China and the European Parliament had decided to free up mutual exchanges. This includes easing trade and diplomatic communications.
Although Trump has moved ahead with trade deals with the U.K., and even China, the EU is being left behind.
The EU has tried several times to convince the U.S. to remove tariffs on European goods, but talks haven’t made progress.
In April, Trump imposed a 10% base tariff along with an additional 25% tariff on EU cars and metals. If no trade deal is reached by July, those tariffs could increase to 20% across the board.
Levying his tariffs, Trump called the EU “nastier than China.”
China is courting American partners, including Canada and the EU, as tariff tensions rise (in the photo: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen)
Image credits: Johannes Simon/Getty Images
According to Josh Lipsky, senior director at the Atlantic Council think tank, “Countries like India and Japan, and even Vietnam, are higher on the priority list in the U.S. right now than the EU, because they know it’s difficult and they want quick wins right now.”
An EU official, privy to the ongoing negotiations with the U.S., told Politico that U.S. counterparts lack negotiating objectives and are “making things up as they go along.”
The EU, like the U.K. and Canada, seems to be growing frustrated with Trump’s lack of consistency.
Image credits: The White House/Flickr
Responding to Trump, Agriculture Commissioner Christophe Hansen said, “We have an Anti-Coercion Instrument, and we will have to use it.”
The bloc’s “trade bazooka” tool was created after Trump’s first term to allow the EU to hit back if it faces unfair trade practices like tariffs, quotas, or limits on investment.
Back in the U.S., the public isn’t sold on Trump’s trade war, either.
According to a poll by Langer Research Associates, Ipsos and ABC News, there is a 64% disapproval rate among Americans on Trump’s handling of the tariffs on international trade.
Image credits: ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll
Nearly half of Americans, including 25% of his own voters, say Trump’s unpredictability is the biggest barrier to successful trade deals, the Politico poll noted.
As Trump doubles down on economic nationalism, he risks not only damaging U.S. trade but also ceding global influence to a more opportunistic China.