Trump's Senate Pick Could Hand Texas to the Democrats

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton won the Republican primary runoff for U.S. Senate on Tuesday, powered by a last-minute endorsement from President Donald Trump that ended Sen. John Cornyn's more than three decades of electoral dominance in the state.

The Associated Press called the race shortly after 8 p.m., and by the time most votes were counted, Paxton had won with about 64% of the vote — a margin of more than 25 percentage points over Cornyn.

Paxton will now face Democratic state Representative James Talarico in November in a contest both parties see as unusually consequential for control of the U.S. Senate.

The result capped a bruising Republican fight that began after Paxton launched his Senate bid in April 2025. Cornyn and Paxton first met in the March 3 primary, where neither won a majority; Cornyn finished narrowly ahead, 42% to 40.5%, forcing a runoff.

Trump moved late but decisively. On May 19, he endorsed Paxton on Truth Social and said Cornyn “was not supportive of me when times were tough.” Seven days later, Paxton had the nomination.

For Democrats, the outcome instantly reframed a race that had long looked difficult. Within minutes of Paxton's win, Talarico took to social media to call him the most corrupt politician in America and said he embodies the broken system they are running against.

Senate Democrats also leaned into the opening. Sens. Chuck Schumer and Kirsten Gillibrand declared that Republicans were facing their nightmare scenario while Democrats were one step closer to winning a Senate majority — and predicted Texas would send Talarico to the Senate in November.

Republican concerns were not limited to Democrats. Before the runoff, Cornyn warned that Paxton's record and the baggage he carries into the general election would be exploited to the fullest by Talarico.

That warning now sits at the center of the November fight. Paxton won the voters who mattered in the runoff, but his critics in both parties argue that the same profile that helped him defeat Cornyn could complicate the general election.

Talarico enters the next phase with significant money behind him. He raised $27 million in the first quarter of 2026 — an extraordinary haul that drew national attention — including $10 million after his primary victory. After Paxton's runoff win, Cook Political Report changed its rating for the seat from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican.”

That shift matters, but it does not mean Texas suddenly becomes easy ground for Democrats. Republicans still hold structural advantages in the state, and no Democrat has won a statewide office in Texas in more than three decades. Past hopes that Texas would flip in 2018, 2020, and 2024 did not pan out.

Some Republicans have voiced exactly that concern: not that Texas has already turned, but that a damaging primary could make the party work harder to hold ground it usually expects to defend comfortably. Sen. Lisa Murkowski questioned how Paxton's nomination helps strengthen the president's hand if Republicans end up losing a state like Texas.

Brandon Rottinghaus, a University of Houston professor of political science, told NPR that the primary fight itself created a lasting challenge for Republican unity.

Paxton's allies can point to the runoff margin as proof that Republican voters made a clear choice, especially after Trump's endorsement. Talarico and Democrats can point to the same result as proof that Republicans chose a nominee they believe can be attacked aggressively in November.

The race now moves from a Republican family fight to a statewide general election with national stakes. Texas remains red, but after Paxton's victory, Democrats have their best opening in years to argue that this Senate seat is no longer out of reach.